Casa Jonsson

Nils & Araceli’s home on the web, est. 2003

10 2003

Losing marbles

download free Acrobat Reader from AdobeImagine playing a game for money in which marbles are drawn out of a bag and then replaced. 60% of the marbles are white. If one of the white marbles is drawn out, you win whatever you risked. The other 40% are blue. If one of the blue marbles is drawn, then you lose whatever you risked. This game has an expectancy of 0.20. That is, over a large number of trials, you’ll make 20¢ for every dollar you risk. That means it’s much better than any game you’ll ever play in Las Vegas. But what percentage of the people who play it make money? (Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.)

I’ve never been drawn to casinos, nor to gambling in general. Although trading and gambling do share common properties, it’s probably because I’m not a gambler that I give so much thought to trading.

The passage above is excerpted from an article that is the best 10-minute introduction to the subject that I know of. end of entry


2 Responses to “Losing marbles”

  1. And I thought you were going to talk about the fact that you and I are losing OUR marbles!!

  2. Talk to me in a few months … I’m trading against a system designed according to the rough line of Tharp’s input.

« My favorite movies I prefer to call it “euthanizing” time »